Why Was There a Trump Victory? An Analysis of the 2024 Presidential Election Results

In a result that has sparked both surprise and intense debate, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, marking a significant Republican comeback. While it’s common in elections to debate over policies, candidates, and broader political sentiment, Trump’s victory brings into focus several key factors that may have shifted the scales in his favor. Here, we take a closer look at six potential reasons that could have influenced voters’ choice.

Anti-Incumbent Sentiment Amid Economic Concerns

The economic landscape has long influenced electoral outcomes, especially during periods of hardship. In 2024, the U.S. economy continued to struggle with challenges like inflation and income stagnation, and many voters appeared ready for change. This “anti-incumbent” tendency, rooted in economic dissatisfaction, may have contributed to a growing desire for a new direction. For many Americans grappling with financial insecurity, Trump’s return to the Oval Office represented the possibility of a course correction, one that could perhaps alleviate economic struggles.

Kamala Harris’s Close Association with the Biden Administration

As Vice President under Joe Biden, Kamala Harris was inherently tied to his administration and its policies. This association may have posed challenges in defining her independent vision as a candidate. Given that Biden’s approval ratings had suffered, largely due to economic pressures and mixed responses to foreign and domestic policy, Harris needed to delineate herself as a fresh, forward-thinking candidate. Some analysts believe that, without a clear departure from the administration’s legacy, voters viewed her as a continuation of Biden’s approach rather than as a unique choice with her own distinct leadership style.

Concerns Over the Gaza Conflict

Another polarizing issue that emerged in this election was the escalating conflict in Gaza. Many Americans expressed unease with the ongoing U.S. support for the conflict, a stance that some viewed as prolonging instability. In contrast to the incumbent stance, Trump promised a sharp policy shift, framing himself as the candidate who could restore America’s focus on domestic issues over foreign entanglements. This position may have resonated with voters wary of continued involvement overseas, adding to the overall sentiment for change.

The Lack of Democratic Primary for Kamala Harris

Harris’s path to the Democratic nomination was unconventional; she became the nominee without a contested primary. This unique route to the top of the ticket, executed by a “switch” of candidates close to the election date, raised questions about her legitimacy as the Democratic standard-bearer. Some voters perceived her as an “appointed” candidate rather than an “elected” one, which may have influenced perceptions of her as less representative of the broader Democratic base.

Decreased Democratic Voter Turnout

In a striking shift from the high turnout of the 2020 election, many Democratic voters opted to sit out the 2024 election. Harris received 15 million fewer votes than Biden had in his victory over Trump four years earlier, while Trump’s numbers only dropped by about 4 million. This turnout gap underscores a lack of enthusiasm within the Democratic base, which could stem from several factors, including a sense of disillusionment or dissatisfaction with Harris’s candidacy. This disengagement likely proved costly, as the Democrats’ typical voter turnout advantage did not materialize.

Trump’s “Explosive” Appeal vs. Harris’s “Safe” Approach

The contrast in campaign styles between Trump and Harris was stark. Trump is widely recognized for his dramatic and often polarizing rhetoric, which leaves a lasting impression on the electorate. His promise of sweeping change and willingness to speak in uncompromising terms resonated with voters looking for bold leadership. On the other hand, Harris was seen as a “safer” candidate with a more measured tone. While this approach may have helped maintain decorum, it potentially failed to inspire the same level of rallying support that Trump’s dynamic messaging generated. Trump’s polarizing style may have, paradoxically, added to his appeal among those craving a powerful, if controversial, figure in the White House.

Conclusion

The 2024 election outcome reflects a complex mix of voter motivations and broader national sentiments. The combination of economic concerns, foreign policy tensions, structural choices within the Democratic Party, and the contrast in campaign styles all seem to have converged to shape the direction of this election. For Kamala Harris, the challenge of running both as a new leader and as part of an administration facing low approval ratings proved formidable. In contrast, Trump’s populist message and promise of disruption resonated with a significant portion of the electorate seeking rapid change. Ultimately, the result underscores the powerful role that both policy and perception play in U.S. elections, where a demand for change—whether economic, political, or cultural—can decisively sway the electorate.

This election provides ample material for both reflection and analysis as Americans, and the world, look ahead to the new chapter this decision will usher in.